Despite the Biden administration’s recent move to reinstate steep tariffs on aluminum imports—continuing the legacy of Trump-era protectionism—there’s little evidence that the U.S. aluminum industry is experiencing a revival. In fact, according to major industry players and analysts, the American aluminum sector remains heavily reliant on foreign suppliers, and the fundamental obstacles to reshoring production remain as daunting as ever.
Tariffs Were Meant to Spark a Comeback—But Haven’t
Back in 2018, the Trump administration introduced a 10% tariff on imported aluminum under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, arguing that it was necessary for national security and to protect domestic producers. That rate has since risen to 25% under certain circumstances. While the tariffs were intended to stimulate domestic aluminum smelting, they have so far failed to deliver meaningful change in the U.S. production landscape.
Instead, U.S. aluminum output has continued to decline. Industry insiders say that tariffs alone are not enough to offset the underlying economic disadvantages of aluminum production in the United States.
High Costs, Long Timelines, and Energy Demands
One of the clearest voices in the debate has been William Oplinger, CEO of Alcoa, one of the largest aluminum producers in the world. Oplinger argues that even with tariffs in place, it’s economically unfeasible to ramp up U.S. aluminum smelting in any significant way.
“To fully replace imported aluminum, we’d need to build about five new smelters,” Oplinger told CNBC. “That would require roughly $35 billion in investment and take at least 5 to 7 years to come online.”
More importantly, aluminum smelting is extraordinarily energy-intensive. According to Alcoa, running five new smelters would require electricity equivalent to the output of seven nuclear power plants—a level of energy supply the U.S. simply isn’t equipped to provide at a competitive cost.
In contrast, countries like Canada offer hydroelectric power at far lower prices, giving their aluminum producers a clear edge. That’s why, even with the tariffs in place, Canada continues to supply about 75% of the aluminum used in the U.S. today.
Tariffs May Hurt More Than They Help
While tariffs were meant to bolster American industry, there is increasing concern that they are doing more harm than good.
For manufacturers who rely on aluminum—like beverage companies, carmakers, and aerospace firms—tariffs mean higher input costs. These costs are often passed on to consumers or result in thinner profit margins. Alcoa itself has warned that tariffs could jeopardize as many as 100,000 American jobs—not in aluminum production, but in industries that use aluminum and are now facing steeper prices.
In short, while a few thousand jobs in U.S. aluminum smelting might be protected by tariffs, many more across the broader economy could be put at risk.
Uncertainty Undermines Investment
Another challenge is the unpredictable nature of trade policy. U.S. tariffs on aluminum have fluctuated based on political leadership, diplomatic agreements, and global market dynamics. For companies considering large-scale investments in U.S. smelters, this uncertainty makes planning virtually impossible.
“No one is going to spend billions of dollars on new smelting capacity when there’s no guarantee tariffs will still be in place five years from now,” said one industry analyst.
A Complex Reality for U.S. Industry
Ultimately, the case of aluminum highlights the complexities of reshoring industrial production. It’s not just about adding tariffs—it’s about infrastructure, long-term energy costs, workforce availability, and regulatory predictability.
Despite patriotic calls to “bring manufacturing back home,” companies like Alcoa are making it clear that tariffs alone cannot overcome the deep structural challenges facing American heavy industry. Until these issues are addressed, aluminum smelting is likely to remain offshore—even if the metal itself becomes more expensive for U.S. consumers and manufacturers.
